There are some positive signs out there. The number of sales for November are close to the average, and the number of new listings are low versus previous Novembers. Meanwhile, the inventory continues to come down. The only negative is prices have slipped, although that is fairly common in the fall.
SALES:
Nov 2010 1120 solds
Nov 2009 1261 solds
Nov 2008 891 solds (Financial crisis period)
Nov 2007 1223 solds
The sales were 1120 sales. Comparing that to other Novembers in previous years we are right on the average of the previous 3 years of 1125 sales. The sales were actually higher in November than in October. That is another positive sign.
NEW LISTINGS:
Nov 2010 1860 new listings
Nov 2009 1894 new listings
Nov 2008 2036 new listings
Nov 2007 2729 new listings
The new listings for the month are lower than the previous 3 year average of 2220 new listings.
INVENTORY:
November inventory is now sitting at 6982, down from October's 7698.
At the current rate that inventory has been falling, and looking at what normally happens in December, I am predicting our inventory should be at 5250 to begin 2011. See the supply vs demand graph. We started 2008 with 6316 inventory (prices fell 8% in 2008) We started 2009 with 4037 inventory (prices rose 4% in 2009) So, if we end up at 5250, we will be in between. If we don't see a rapid buildup in inventory in the spring (which occured in 2008 and 2010), then I would expect prices should be stable in 2011.
NOVEMBER PRICES:
Single Family $362,656 down 0.8%
Duplex/Rowhouse $318,604 up 9% (this is a small segment of our market and therefore is volatile)
Condos $229,603 down 2.7%
Have a great December!
