October Edmonton Real Estate Update

October is another banner month for sales. We had the 2nd best October ever (beat only by the hot market of October 2006). The listing inventory is down as well to 5530 (from 6032 in Sept). The price point that makes up $300,000 or less is still hovering around 50% of the market (48% under $300,000 in October). 20% of the market is over $400,000, again consistent with most of the year. Despite the fact there are plenty of multiple offers floating around, the prices did slip (down 2.2% for Single Family and down 3.2% for condos) which is seasonal.

September Edmonton Real Estate Prices

Well September was the 3rd best September on record for units sold. The prices are definitely reflecting the market's turnaround. This graph shows the price for a single family dwelling from March of 2007 onward.

August 2009 Edmonton real estate price ranges

Here are those charts. As you can see the price ranges that are expanding are under $300,000 and over $400,000. I would attribute this expansion under $300,000 to the continued influx of first time buyers into the market. The over $400,000 range is probably attributed to better feelings about the economy and more move up buyers.

Edmonton Real Estate Market August 2009

Well it looks like we are back to a balanced market. No record breaking sales this month. The number of sales for August are back to a more normal range (1673). Prices actually have flattened and dipped a little. The inventory is continuing to fall which is good news. We are now at 6445 homes for sale (down from 6592 in July). One thing that is interesting is the over $400,000 price segment has went up in the last month (from 19% to 22%) but the under $300,00 is also increasing (up from 47% to 48%). So, therefore the middle $300,000-$400,000 range is actually shrinking a bit. I will post these charts in the next post.
What this all means (in my opinion) is that the market is balancing out. The predictions that we were going to shoot through the roof with prices earlier in the year have not been realized. The prices have stopped their freefall and climbed a little, but it looks like we are now moving into a stable balanced market.

July 2009 Edmonton Single Family Detached Average Price

I've put together a graph showing the average price for Single Family Detached homes. Our prices have moved back up to mid 2008 numbers. Way off from the 2007 peak, but we are moving in the right direction.

Edmonton Real Estate July 2009 Market Stats

July has been similar to June, very strong and recordbreaking. 2277 sales in the month of July, beating July of 2006 (1953 solds) by a wide margin. On the listing supply side we are now sitting at 6592 properties for sale which is down from June's 6785. What have prices done during this strong market? Not too much. We have seen an increase for Single Family dwellings to $369,859 which is just under 1% increase from June 2009. The overall average price (including condos and duplexes) actually dropped one percent to $324,847.

What does this all mean? Well the market is definitely trying to find itself. The demand is very strong, but the listing inventory has been keeping up with the demand. The resulting situation is becoming more of a balanced market in my opinion. I don't thing the sales will be recordbreaking as we go into the fall (I have been wrong before), so I actually forsee a situation where our inventory climbs a little. Not a dramatic increase, but enough to stall any further price increases. We did have the one month of 5% price increase this year, but the rest of the months are up 1% or down 1%. Overall we will probably see an average price increase of 7% total for the whole year of 2009.

This is good, not great. It reminds me of the 1996 market in Edmonton. In 1996, we had a tremendous influx of Armed Forces personnel moving into Edmonton from other Bases. This increase in demand did not effect prices dramatically (prices went up 4% for the year), but what it did do was "sop up" the excess listing inventory we had from the 1993-1995 recession/cutbacks that were going on in the City when Premier Klein came to power. Basically, the increase in buyers helped cure the supply problem, stopped the freefall in prices, and we went on our merry way of price increases in the 5-10% range in the following years. I see a similar situation here. We don't have military moving in, but we do have first time buyers, renters and relocations coming into the market. These people were frozen out of the market for the last few years because of the higher interest rates and the higher prices.

Edmonton real estate market stats for June 2009

Well as we expected, June was a record breaking month for sales. Over 2400 sales this month, more sales than May (2161 sales). The other big story is how many listings are out there. Our inventory has dropped down to the 6500 range. That is much lower than last June (2008) when we had 10,817 homes for sale. Prices for both condos and single family both went up just under 1% for the month. Not as high of an increase as May (4% increase). This could be something to watch. The high sales volume units wise is not translating into a manic price increase (like 2006). In fact the percentage of the total sales are very similar to January 2009 numbers. We have been hovering around 50% of the market in that $300,000 or less price point. So the market has been very strong, but the prices have not gone crazy. A 5% increase in two months is still very substantial. I've attached some graphs that might be of interest. Happy Canada Day everyone!

Corporate Relocations: Relocating your family to Edmonton Part 2

I've included some more question and answers relocation related.
Question: What if my employer doesn't pay for the move, are there any savings I can receive?
Answer: This is a question you should ask your accountant. If you are relocating a certain distance for work reasons Canada Customs and Revenue Agency could allow you to claim expenses such as flights, moving vans, hotel stays, meals, inspection costs, etc. Again I am not an accountant, but check with your accountant to see if these expenses can be claimed by you.
Question: I don't know much about the area I am moving to, how do I know what is good or a bad area?
Answer: The short answer here is find a good REALTOR®. A good REALTOR® will advise you on average sale prices in the area, crime concerns, commuting distances etc. A good rule of thumb is, the higher the average price of a neighbourhood, the better the neighbourhood. If it looks like it is a great deal, there is probably a location issue with the home. Your REALTOR® can help advise you on what the best area will be for your price range.
Question: What is the market like? I know where I am living everything is selling slowly.
Answer: Again a good REALTOR® will make you aware of what the average days on market is, how much the sellers are coming down in price etc. Really market education is the key.
Question: How should I pick a REALTOR®?
Answer: Referrals from a REALTOR® you know in your current area is one great way. That is how I am connected to most of my relocating clients. Also, talk to friends or family members that may know someone. Some companies have a relocation program that assign you a REALTOR® as well. Be sure to check out the steps involved if you are part of a relocation program. For example, I know with the Canadian Forces you can not list your home before you have your posting message. If you don't follow the right steps, your relocation company may not pay for some of your moving expenses. The internet is also a good way to find a REALTOR®, you can create dialogue through emails and by the phone. Don't be afraid to ask questions!
Questions: When choosing a REALTOR® what questions should I ask?
Answer: I would ask how many relocations they deal with per year. How experienced they are (important for neighbourhood knowledge). Do they personally work with you or do they put you in touch with a buyer's agent. If it is a buyers agent, how experienced is that agent.

Corporate Relocations: Relocating your family to Edmonton Part 1

Each year I work with 10 or more families relocating from other cities and regions of Canada into the Metro Edmonton area. I've put together a few questions and answers that might be of help should you be relocating.
Question: Should I have my home sold first?
Answer: This is a big one. I highly recommend you sell your current home first. Even if you can financially swing buying before you sell, it converts you from a want to seller to a have to seller. Your negotiating power on the selling of your home is definitely weakened when you have the added pressure of paying for two households. The other problem is if you do have to sell your current home in order to buy the new home, the seller will most likely put on a 24/48/72 hour clause condition, which means your offer can be bumped at anytime by another buyer. This is a very emotionally draining position for a family to be in. You think you have your dream home tied up and it is pulled out from under you. Not a positive experience.
Question: How many homes should I be looking at?
Answer: The average number of homes a local buyer will physically look at when they are utilizing the internet in their search is 8. I find that my buyers that are from out of the area normally look at double that number (15 or so). That does not mean everyone looks at that amount, as it depends on how many homes are for sale in your price range and area, but it is a fairly accurate average.
Question: I have a week to find a home. Is a week enough time?
Answer: Surprisingly yes! I have actually found that 2 or 3 days of power shopping (looking at 8 or more homes per day) normally is enough time to pick your new home. That still gives you time to line up a building inspection and be present at the inspection before you have to return to your current home. In fact, I do not ever remember having a client not being able to find a home in the week they were given.

Stay tuned for part 2....

Edmonton mortgage defaults June 2009 and media sensationalism

I just came across a "news" article in the Edmonton Journal today. The title is Mortgage Defaults Soar!!!! http://www.edmontonjournal.com/Business/Mortgage+defaults+soar/1723557/story.html Now, I like to present facts and stats, but I really had to laugh at some of the points the article brought up. One "stat" that really stood out was, and I quote "ForeclosuresCanada.com,which tracks Alberta court filings for property investors--but doesn't provide data with the same level of detail as the province--listed two-and-a-half times more Edmonton foreclosures between this January and early May than in the same period two years ago." Now, anybody that had a remote involvement in Edmonton real estate in early 2007 knows that this was the hottest period of sales we have ever had. In fact, the most homes we ever sold in one month was in May 2007 (2839 sales). Sale prices were climbing 5% per MONTH in early 2007. To see a home go into foreclosure in early 2007 was a complete oddity. So, any market would have more foreclosures than that time, I am actually surprised there were only 2.5 times as many. To be fair, I also know that Real Estate Boards tend to put a positive spin on everything. I'm not defending that either. But, this headline is just sensationalism. I guess it gets attention, kind of like Elvis is Alive, or I am Bigfoot's love child.

Edmonton real estate price range statistics

I was mentioning in a previous post the price ranges that are the most active. I've put together another graph that shows where the market is the most active. Currently close to 50% of the market is under $300,000, 85% of the market is under $400,000. The biggest segment of buyers by far are in the $250,000-$300,000 price range. That segment alone makes up close to 20% of the market. These stats are for June 2009, month to date (as of June 17th).

Edmonton Real Estate Condo Average Sale Price June 2009

The condo market has strengthened as well. I've put together another graph showing the condo price increase in the Edmonton real estate market. (Note: the June stats are all based on data up to Jun 15, 2009) Again this clearly shows the impact the upswing in sales and constant listing inventory has had on the prices in the area.

Edmonton Real Estate Average Sale Price Mid June 2009

Hi again! I've put together a graph to show the rapid price increases we have seen in the last 60 days in the Edmonton real estate market. (Note: the June stats are all based on data up to Jun 15, 2009) From the SFD graph it appears as if we hit the lowest price for single family in February of 2009. This falls into line with the continual shrinking of the months of inventory in the Edmonton area.

Mid June 2009 Edmonton Real Estate Market Market update

Sales continue to be strong. Currently we are on pace to sell over 2300 homes. That is even stronger than May (2161). So, unless things tailoff, we may beat May's numbers. As for listing inventory, we are currently sitting at 7562 properties for sale. The number of new listings is keeping the inventory level constant and close to what we ended May with (7435 properties). I expect the inventory level to drop to close to 7000 by the end of the month. This follows seasonal trends of the listing inventory peaking in the month of May.

The market is very brisk under $300,000. In above average areas the market is also very strong up to $400,000. Multiple offers are fairly common, but it is rare to see unconditional offers. Good well priced properties aren't lasting long, on average they are going pending in the first week on the market. I'm working with a couple buyers in the lower price ranges tonight, and hopefully we can find something to offer on where we are not in competition with other buyers.

Official Edmonton MLS stats for May 2009

Well the stats are out. The market did perform quite well in May as was expected. The main points are:

1) May Sales (2161 sales) are consistent with 2005 numbers (before we had our boom in 2006-07). The sales are not recordbreaking but strong. Throughout 2008 we never sold more than 2000 homes in a month. Year to date sales are still lower than 2008 (by 8%).

2) Listing inventory is DOWN 100 properties from April. Normally May is the peak level of inventory for the calender year.

3) PRICES are being impacted up by 4%. Buyers are shifting up in price, this is the first month we have really seen a dramatic change for both condos and single family dwellings.

4) We are now sitting at 3.4 months of inventory which is more of a Sellers' market than a balanced market.

The big question out there is will this strength continue. The supply and demand definitely indicate prices should increase (as they have). Our sales are very similar (actually we are down by 8% year to date) to 2008. The difference is on the supply side. Our number of listings are way down (30% range). That is what has kicked the market out of a buyers' market and into a sellers' market. As I had mentioned in a previous post, the one wild card that is out there is interest rates. If interest rates move up 1 to 2%, I think the market will cool off quickly. In 2006 and 2007 it was more of a "I have to buy before prices go up and I'm going to get rich" mentality. This year it has been more of a "I can finally afford a home now with the reduction in prices and interest rates" . This is more of an affordablity driven market, 2006-07 was more of a speculative panic market. That is why I am cautiously optimistic in the market, but also know that a return to the boom months of 5% price increase per month is probably unlikely.
We did see an increase of prices by 4% last month, I just don't see that becoming a pattern in 2009. If anyone has any thoughts on the market, I would love to hear them.

End of May 2009 Metro Edmonton Market Stats

Hi everyone. It looks like we will end up with close to 2250 sales for May (up from 1843 in April)and an inventory of 7500 homes for sale (close to April's numbers). The market is now tipping more towards a Seller's Market than a balanced market. We only have a 3 month supply of homes for sale with the current rate of sales. The market currently is very strong.

The only thing that could pour some cold water on the market is the talk that interest rates are going up. Our market has been very price sensitive. Close to 50% of the sales are under $300,000 and that has been fairly consistent since the beginning of 2009. I think an interest rate increase combined with price increases will knock out alot of buyers that are in the market right now. So, I am cautiously optimistic on the market.

I will be putting out the official stats once they are posted by the Edmonton Realtors Association.

Mid May 2009 Metro Edmonton Market Update

The strengthening market continues. The sales have been very strong in the recent 2 months. This is combined with a lower number of homes for sale versus last year at this time. According to the latest stats, we are on pace to sell over 2000 homes this month. As for the number of homes for sale, it looks like our inventory will increase by around 700 homes by the end of May. That will put us at just over 8000 listings (we were at 11,000 by the end of May 2008). 2000 sales with 8000 properties for sale is equivalent to a 4 month supply (how long it would take to sell our current inventory at the current rate of sales with no new listings). Normally this indicates a sellers' market and prices should increase.
The one thing that is interesting is that the prices have not been effected so far. I am noticing buyers wanting to buy homes, but they are being very patient. They want to negotiate and are willing to wait if the seller does not agree to their numbers. It is an interesting dynamic. Normally with this tight of a supply situation you will see stronger price increases, instead pricing is remaining very stable. The buyers are definitely willing to pay market value, but they do not want to get into a bidding war. Hard to say how long this situation will last, but when a market enters a transitional stage there is often a period of adjustment by the sellers and the buyers.

Residential sales yearly comparison

I was working on a graph that shows the number of properties sold in the Metro Edmonton area over the last 5 years. It clearly shows that May is normally our peak month for number of sales. The red line is this year's sales numbers. If the pattern continues we could see 2000 properties sold in May. That would put us on track with 2008 (blue line) and 2005 (yellow line) sales volume. 2006 (black line) and 2007 (green line) were unusual speculative years and should not be considered a "normal" number of sales.

The market has definitely been brisk. Our days on market average continues to fall (from the 70 days range to 58 days)and the list to sale's price ratio (ie how much the buyers are getting off the price) has been rising. These are two clear signals that the market is strengthening.

The Edmonton Real Estate market update May 2009

How is the market? The short answer is improving! Last year (2008) we had an oversupply of listings (reached 11000 listings), only 4 out of 10 listed homes sold and prices were dropping in the 1% a month range. Thankfully that year is over!
The market demand (sales) have been steady this year. In April we sold 20 more homes than April of 2008 (1% increase). In contrast to the oversupply of listings in 2008 which caused the prices to fall, our listings are way down. New listings are down 1452 from last April (32% lower) Overall Inventory is down 3067 from last year (7539 versus 10606) or down 29% from 2008. The tightening supply has caused the prices to stop their freefall and it looks like we have moved from a buyer’s market into a balanced market.
If you are curious what your home is worth today, please don’t hesitate to call me at 780.499.5696.

Official Stats for Edmonton January 2009

Well the stats are out. The sales were better than December, but much lower than January of 2008 (off 40.9%) there were 730 sales in January versus 608 in December. The positive spin that has been put on this is that the unit sales number has went up month over month, but December was a record low for unit sales.
Analogy: So, it is kind of like saying I upgraded my car from a Gremlin to a Pinto. No offence to Pinto owners out there.
There is good news though. The listing inventory is sitting at 6573, in 2008 we were already up to 8284 homes for sale by the end of January. That means we added 4% to our listing inventory in the month of January. To put that into perspective, our listing inventory grew by 12.7% in January 2008. So, after polishing my crystal ball and if this pace continues my bold prediction is that our listing inventory will hit 7600 homes for sale in May. This inventory level is a balanced supply for our population as long as we see normal sales volume. To sum up, January sales bad, January listings good.

The January Market

Well the stats aren't out for January, but the market has definitely been active. Our sales look like they will be in the 600 range, which is low. Normally we see 900 to 1000 homes selling in January in previous years, so we are obviously off in sales just like December 2008. But, there is definitely a change in the air. I am out showing this evening and half of the homes we wanted to view in the $350-$375000 price range are pending or sold. The market has appeared to be gaining speed since the year began. Our listing inventory looks to be in the 6700 range (versus 6300 at the beginning of January), so that is a gradual buildup and not a huge concern.

On my listings, the showings are way up versus December. I've been speaking with other Realtors as well as Mortgage specialists and everyone is noticing a ramp up in activity. Personally, I still do not see a return to 2006 or 2007 price increases, but there is a good chance that we have reached the bottom of the market and are turning a corner.

I will post an updated graph showing the inventory and sales when the official numbers come out.