Well the stats are out. The sales were better than December, but much lower than January of 2008 (off 40.9%) there were 730 sales in January versus 608 in December. The positive spin that has been put on this is that the unit sales number has went up month over month, but December was a record low for unit sales.
Analogy: So, it is kind of like saying I upgraded my car from a Gremlin to a Pinto. No offence to Pinto owners out there.
There is good news though. The listing inventory is sitting at 6573, in 2008 we were already up to 8284 homes for sale by the end of January. That means we added 4% to our listing inventory in the month of January. To put that into perspective, our listing inventory grew by 12.7% in January 2008. So, after polishing my crystal ball and if this pace continues my bold prediction is that our listing inventory will hit 7600 homes for sale in May. This inventory level is a balanced supply for our population as long as we see normal sales volume. To sum up, January sales bad, January listings good.
Wednesday, February 4, 2009
Tuesday, February 3, 2009
The January Market
Well the stats aren't out for January, but the market has definitely been active. Our sales look like they will be in the 600 range, which is low. Normally we see 900 to 1000 homes selling in January in previous years, so we are obviously off in sales just like December 2008. But, there is definitely a change in the air. I am out showing this evening and half of the homes we wanted to view in the $350-$375000 price range are pending or sold. The market has appeared to be gaining speed since the year began. Our listing inventory looks to be in the 6700 range (versus 6300 at the beginning of January), so that is a gradual buildup and not a huge concern.
On my listings, the showings are way up versus December. I've been speaking with other Realtors as well as Mortgage specialists and everyone is noticing a ramp up in activity. Personally, I still do not see a return to 2006 or 2007 price increases, but there is a good chance that we have reached the bottom of the market and are turning a corner.
I will post an updated graph showing the inventory and sales when the official numbers come out.
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