Official Stats for Edmonton January 2009

Well the stats are out. The sales were better than December, but much lower than January of 2008 (off 40.9%) there were 730 sales in January versus 608 in December. The positive spin that has been put on this is that the unit sales number has went up month over month, but December was a record low for unit sales.
Analogy: So, it is kind of like saying I upgraded my car from a Gremlin to a Pinto. No offence to Pinto owners out there.
There is good news though. The listing inventory is sitting at 6573, in 2008 we were already up to 8284 homes for sale by the end of January. That means we added 4% to our listing inventory in the month of January. To put that into perspective, our listing inventory grew by 12.7% in January 2008. So, after polishing my crystal ball and if this pace continues my bold prediction is that our listing inventory will hit 7600 homes for sale in May. This inventory level is a balanced supply for our population as long as we see normal sales volume. To sum up, January sales bad, January listings good.

The January Market

Well the stats aren't out for January, but the market has definitely been active. Our sales look like they will be in the 600 range, which is low. Normally we see 900 to 1000 homes selling in January in previous years, so we are obviously off in sales just like December 2008. But, there is definitely a change in the air. I am out showing this evening and half of the homes we wanted to view in the $350-$375000 price range are pending or sold. The market has appeared to be gaining speed since the year began. Our listing inventory looks to be in the 6700 range (versus 6300 at the beginning of January), so that is a gradual buildup and not a huge concern.

On my listings, the showings are way up versus December. I've been speaking with other Realtors as well as Mortgage specialists and everyone is noticing a ramp up in activity. Personally, I still do not see a return to 2006 or 2007 price increases, but there is a good chance that we have reached the bottom of the market and are turning a corner.

I will post an updated graph showing the inventory and sales when the official numbers come out.

Changing things up...

Hi everyone. Instead of the stats, I'm going to be posting some things you normally don't see here. I'm out of town for a couple weeks, taking some time to recharge with the family. We are down in San Diego, much warmer than what we left in Edmonton (-23 degrees C). Although the weather here has been wet and cold for San Diego standards, not really sitting by the pool weather. We ended up getting soaked yesterday going shopping at the mall. The open air mall layout in Southern California doesn't work too well in a downpour. Anybody have any ideas on what to check out while we are down here? Any good restaurants or must see places?

November Market update

Well December is here already. It has been a wild year for Edmonton real estate. We have seen a peak of listing inventory never seen before. Our sales have been strong for much of the year. Although November has cooled off. We are now at 8015 homes for sale, and we had 891 sales in November. To give you some perspective, normally we see 1200 homes selling in November, so the sales are off by roughly 25%. Inventory has continued to fall, this is good. I heard a rumour that Calgary's inventory was rising this fall. So, the drop in listings pattern has continued. We should see an inventory level in the 7000 range by the end of the year. The one difference I think we will see in 2009 is not as much of a run up in inventory in the first 5 months of the year. The reason I'm saying this, is that many people last fall (2007), were taking their homes off the market in order to relist in the spring of 2008. They thought the market would be stronger in the spring of 2008. It turned out that the sales were strong, but there were too many other sellers thinking along the same lines and we were flooded with new listings this spring. Happy holidays!

October 2008 Edmonton Real Estate update

Hope you all had a nice Halloween, it is nice to see warmer temperatures and no snow for the little ones.

As for the market, October has continued the inventory decline. The sales in October did dip (1203 sales), although that is consistent with previous Octobers. If you look at the stats from the month of October back to 2004, then you will see most months result in 1200-1300 sales (the only exception being the overheated market of 2006). So, overall we are seeing very consistent results with continued strong stable demand.

The one change has been the inventory decline, as you can see from the graph it is not nearly as steep as previous months. We may not see the 5000-6000 inventory level at the end of the year if this pattern continues. 7000 may be a more realistic prediction.

September 2008 Edmonton Real Estate Update

The market continues to strengthen on both the supply and demand side. The supply of homes is now sitting at 8630 homes for sale in the Edmonton area. Down from 9612 last month. On the demand side, the number of sales have bounced up to 1719 from 1541 in August. We are now in a market with a 5 month supply of inventory. Technically we are now in a balanced market.
Predictions? As I mentioned in August's wrapup, I think we will drop into the 6000 or less inventory range by the end of December. That should set us up for a strong spring market in 2009 where we could start to see price increases.

August 2008 Edmonton Real Estate update

The pattern continues. Our listing inventory has dropped to 9612 from 10,335 in July. That is a big drop. If we continue at this rate, then our inventory could easily drop under 7000 homes for sale. Last year (2007) we saw a drop to the 7000 level, but the inventory didn't start falling until October. Therefore, we may even see 5000-6000 numbers for inventory. If we do see this level and our sales remain strong, then price increases could be expected in 2009. Those are mighty big "ifs", but the pattern and graphs are pointing in that direction. A 5000 level of inventory with 1500-2000 sales per month would definitely create a seller's market. Before everyone gets too excited, we won't be returning to the 50% annual increases in price soon. We should come back to the 5-7% annual price increase that we had in the early 2000's and late 90's IF the patterns continue.

As for sales, we were a little softer than July. In July we saw 1752 sales and in August we have seen 1541 sales. Softer than July yes, but this is much stronger than last year, August 2008 only saw 1229 sales.

Days on market has crept up, we are now at 63 days in August. We were at 55 days on the market in July. Two things can be the causing this. This could be a signal that the market is slowing. Or, is this a signal that sellers are starting to dig in their heels and are willing to wait for higher offers? September should answer a few more questions.