Where are we going in 2008? The market has definitely picked up in recent weeks. The one thing that is consistent with the last 6 months, is that buyers still have an abundance of listings to pick from. Our listing inventory is sitting at just over 7000 properties. Historically in a balanced market, we are at a 4000-5000 listing inventory.
The sales over January are going to come under right around 1000. The last 2 years we saw sales over 1000 in January (markets with large price increases). 2003-05 saw sales just under 1000 properties in the month of January. So, we are back to the "normal" and/or balanced number of sales.
What does this all mean? In my opinion, the market has come back to a normal level of sales, the listing inventory is still higher than it should be. Does this mean prices will fall? No, but don't expect large price increases in the current market. We have too many listings to justify significant price increases, but if a significant number of buyers move into the area, we could see a real shift in prices and reduction of inventory. The predictions are that we will have a net immigration of 15,000 people into the Metro Edmonton area this year. We are currently sitting at an inventory that is 3000+ in excess. The average family is 3, and if we have 15,000 people moving in, that would require 5000 homes for new residents. So, the new residents of Edmonton will definitely help in eliminating this excess inventory.
As I have said before, time will tell.
As I have said before, time will tell.
No comments:
Post a Comment