Well, the stats are out. The EREB (Edmonton Real Estate Board) has released the stats for November. The listing inventory has fallen again for the second month in a row (peaked at 9918 in September) We are currently at 8667 listings. The sales are staying stable at 1223 units for the month of November (1276 in October). Prices have fallen by 6.5% for condos and single family homes combined ($325,060). This puts our average price close to the average price in February. The average price for a single family home is now at $376,267 ($397,189 in October). The average price for a condo has dropped to $252,777 ($262,875 in October).
Are these price drops shocking? No, not really. The shocking part was that our average price has actually held steady statistically for the last 3 months, but in reality (out on the street where I am showing and listing homes) the prices have been steadily falling. We are still approximately 10.5% higher than where we were at for an average sale price at the end of December 2006.
What do these stats mean? The inventory has been falling in the Edmonton marketplace, there have been quite a few homes coming off the market that failed to sell over the summer. Does that mean these homes will come back on to the market in the spring and "flood" the market with listings? Or, will the market tighten up and see some price increases? A crystal ball is needed. My personal opinion is that the market should move into a more balanced position. Historically, the 1st quarter of the year is strong with sales and sheer number of buyers getting into the market. This should "chew up" the excess inventory. My feeling is that the market has been busier over the last 2 weeks (more showings and offers on my listings). If this continues into the Holidays, we could be in for a busy start to the new year.
Vacant properties currently listed for sale account for 40% of the market right now. That number (over 3000 homes) has to be sold before we can consider strong price increases. Obviously the vacant homes are normally the "have-to" sellers and normally quite motivated. I guess time will tell!
Note: All stats are from the Edmonton Real Estate Board
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