Edmonton mortgage defaults June 2009 and media sensationalism

I just came across a "news" article in the Edmonton Journal today. The title is Mortgage Defaults Soar!!!! http://www.edmontonjournal.com/Business/Mortgage+defaults+soar/1723557/story.html Now, I like to present facts and stats, but I really had to laugh at some of the points the article brought up. One "stat" that really stood out was, and I quote "ForeclosuresCanada.com,which tracks Alberta court filings for property investors--but doesn't provide data with the same level of detail as the province--listed two-and-a-half times more Edmonton foreclosures between this January and early May than in the same period two years ago." Now, anybody that had a remote involvement in Edmonton real estate in early 2007 knows that this was the hottest period of sales we have ever had. In fact, the most homes we ever sold in one month was in May 2007 (2839 sales). Sale prices were climbing 5% per MONTH in early 2007. To see a home go into foreclosure in early 2007 was a complete oddity. So, any market would have more foreclosures than that time, I am actually surprised there were only 2.5 times as many. To be fair, I also know that Real Estate Boards tend to put a positive spin on everything. I'm not defending that either. But, this headline is just sensationalism. I guess it gets attention, kind of like Elvis is Alive, or I am Bigfoot's love child.

Edmonton real estate price range statistics

I was mentioning in a previous post the price ranges that are the most active. I've put together another graph that shows where the market is the most active. Currently close to 50% of the market is under $300,000, 85% of the market is under $400,000. The biggest segment of buyers by far are in the $250,000-$300,000 price range. That segment alone makes up close to 20% of the market. These stats are for June 2009, month to date (as of June 17th).

Edmonton Real Estate Condo Average Sale Price June 2009

The condo market has strengthened as well. I've put together another graph showing the condo price increase in the Edmonton real estate market. (Note: the June stats are all based on data up to Jun 15, 2009) Again this clearly shows the impact the upswing in sales and constant listing inventory has had on the prices in the area.

Edmonton Real Estate Average Sale Price Mid June 2009

Hi again! I've put together a graph to show the rapid price increases we have seen in the last 60 days in the Edmonton real estate market. (Note: the June stats are all based on data up to Jun 15, 2009) From the SFD graph it appears as if we hit the lowest price for single family in February of 2009. This falls into line with the continual shrinking of the months of inventory in the Edmonton area.

Mid June 2009 Edmonton Real Estate Market Market update

Sales continue to be strong. Currently we are on pace to sell over 2300 homes. That is even stronger than May (2161). So, unless things tailoff, we may beat May's numbers. As for listing inventory, we are currently sitting at 7562 properties for sale. The number of new listings is keeping the inventory level constant and close to what we ended May with (7435 properties). I expect the inventory level to drop to close to 7000 by the end of the month. This follows seasonal trends of the listing inventory peaking in the month of May.

The market is very brisk under $300,000. In above average areas the market is also very strong up to $400,000. Multiple offers are fairly common, but it is rare to see unconditional offers. Good well priced properties aren't lasting long, on average they are going pending in the first week on the market. I'm working with a couple buyers in the lower price ranges tonight, and hopefully we can find something to offer on where we are not in competition with other buyers.

Official Edmonton MLS stats for May 2009

Well the stats are out. The market did perform quite well in May as was expected. The main points are:

1) May Sales (2161 sales) are consistent with 2005 numbers (before we had our boom in 2006-07). The sales are not recordbreaking but strong. Throughout 2008 we never sold more than 2000 homes in a month. Year to date sales are still lower than 2008 (by 8%).

2) Listing inventory is DOWN 100 properties from April. Normally May is the peak level of inventory for the calender year.

3) PRICES are being impacted up by 4%. Buyers are shifting up in price, this is the first month we have really seen a dramatic change for both condos and single family dwellings.

4) We are now sitting at 3.4 months of inventory which is more of a Sellers' market than a balanced market.

The big question out there is will this strength continue. The supply and demand definitely indicate prices should increase (as they have). Our sales are very similar (actually we are down by 8% year to date) to 2008. The difference is on the supply side. Our number of listings are way down (30% range). That is what has kicked the market out of a buyers' market and into a sellers' market. As I had mentioned in a previous post, the one wild card that is out there is interest rates. If interest rates move up 1 to 2%, I think the market will cool off quickly. In 2006 and 2007 it was more of a "I have to buy before prices go up and I'm going to get rich" mentality. This year it has been more of a "I can finally afford a home now with the reduction in prices and interest rates" . This is more of an affordablity driven market, 2006-07 was more of a speculative panic market. That is why I am cautiously optimistic in the market, but also know that a return to the boom months of 5% price increase per month is probably unlikely.
We did see an increase of prices by 4% last month, I just don't see that becoming a pattern in 2009. If anyone has any thoughts on the market, I would love to hear them.

End of May 2009 Metro Edmonton Market Stats

Hi everyone. It looks like we will end up with close to 2250 sales for May (up from 1843 in April)and an inventory of 7500 homes for sale (close to April's numbers). The market is now tipping more towards a Seller's Market than a balanced market. We only have a 3 month supply of homes for sale with the current rate of sales. The market currently is very strong.

The only thing that could pour some cold water on the market is the talk that interest rates are going up. Our market has been very price sensitive. Close to 50% of the sales are under $300,000 and that has been fairly consistent since the beginning of 2009. I think an interest rate increase combined with price increases will knock out alot of buyers that are in the market right now. So, I am cautiously optimistic on the market.

I will be putting out the official stats once they are posted by the Edmonton Realtors Association.